A Model for Creative Products to Forecast and It's Production Plan Solved by ACO

Creative product is special product, which has characteristics like short product life cycle, big market risk and so on. The market is changed very soon, and the needs of customers are changed quickly, too. In order to increase the profit and decrease the cost, it is necessary to forecast the demand and make production plan. The product plan is developed according to the quantity of demand, but creative product has no historical sell data to base on, what’s more, the demand is unknowable, the information of market is delayed, so it’s difficult to forecast accurately. Trend Extrapolation is a way to forecast, and there are many models such as The Gompertz Curve and Pearl curve. The Gompertz curve is used to analysis the development, progress, maturity and decline of new products which is consist with the several stage of product life cycle, the author will use it to forecast, then make production plan of it and use ant colony optimization (ACO) to find the best